Economic comment

Wage growth in the enterprise sector rose to 5.9% y/y in June from 5.8% y/y in May, close to our call of 6.0% y/y and above the market consensus of 5.6% y/y. Real wage growth increased to 3.3% y/y from 2.6% y/y. (...) Employment growth in the enterprise sector remained at -0.9% y/y in June, unchanged from May and in line with expectations. (...)

June data from Polish economy turned out quite encouraging overall, mainly close to consensus expectations. The real economy performed even better than we had expected, with industry growth at 7.6% y/y and construction sector at 5.2% y/y. This leads to acceleration in 2Q relative to 1Q, just as we had ancitipated. For the MPC, these figures look more like a reason to remain in a wait-and-see mode than a support for rate cuts.

Final data on June CPI confirmed the decline to 2.5% y/y from 3.1% y/y in May, signalled in the flash release. The 0.5 m/m fall was also unchanged vs. the first estimate by Statistics Poland. The inflation slide was driven by fuel and food, down 7.4% m/m and 0.7% m/m, respectively. It looks like core inflation also helped a bit – after seeing the detailed data we keep our estimate at 3.0% y/y. The May reading was 3.1% y/y. 
Overall inflation in goods was down to 1.3% y/y in June from 2.1% y/y in May. Inflation in services eased to 5.4% y/y from 5.7% y/y. The end of the government program mitigating the fuel price increase and the recent rise in energy commodity prices mean that CPI growth may return to or slightly below 3% y/y in July and then stay in the 3-3.5% y/y range throughout 2H26. (...)