Economic Analysis

In today's Eyeopener

- Today, the Polish government will consider a number of proposals concerning fiscal parameters for 2027
- The current gas tariff has been extended until the end of the year
- The EURPLN exchange rate remained stable, bond yields and market rates edged higher

The domestic calendar of economic events for the coming week looks exceptionally sparse. The only economic release will be the balance of payments data on Friday. The market consensus expects the current account deficit in April to remain at a level similar to March, around €200m. Our forecast assumes the deficit will widen to over €1bn, mainly due to higher commodity costs boosting the value of imports. If this proves correct, it could weigh on the zloty just ahead of the next weekend. (...)

At today’s conference, NBP president Adam Glapiński commented on the current economic conditions, noting that while CPI remains slightly elevated, the recent inflationary shock has been less severe than initially expected. He also pointed to a somewhat weaker GDP growth in 1Q26, accompanied by a moderation in wage growth. (…)
 

Once again this year, we are revising our forecasts for the Polish economy towards higher inflation and slightly weaker economic growth. This reflects, firstly, the flow of new economic data, which surprised on the downside in terms of GDP growth in 1Q this year and on the upside in terms of the scale of price increases in April, including in core categories; and secondly, the prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which is pushing up the expected trajectory of energy commodity prices in the coming months. We continue to assume that de-escalation of the conflict over the coming weeks remains the baseline scenario. (...)