Economic Analysis

In today's Eyeopener

- Today, Statistics Poland’s Statistical Bulletin and European PMIs 
- Retail sales growth slowed to 3.3% in September; money supply growth accelerated to 12.5% y/y 
- EURPLN back well above 4.37; market interest rates slightly lower
 

The domestic calendar of events and releases for the coming week contains just one major item: the release of the preliminary CPI inflation data for October. According to our estimates, the overall price level remained unchanged m/m, bringing the annual CPI inflation rate down slightly to 3.9% y/y from 4.1% y/y in September. This was possible, among other factors, thanks to the reinstatement of the CPN programme (a temporary reduction in VAT and excise duty on fuels), which resulted in fuel prices at petrol stations falling by around 9% m/m over the course of the month. At the same time, our observations point to a fairly pronounced increase in food prices (around 0.8% m/m) and, most likely, a further rise in energy costs (0.9% m/m), including heating fuel. The median forecast for October inflation in the Bloomberg survey stands at 3.7%, with forecasts ranging from 3.4% to 3.9% y/y. (...)

The GDP Tracker is a new econometric solution developed by Erste Bank Polska, designed to provide real-time estimates of Poland’s economic growth. Inspired by models used by the New York Fed and the Atlanta Fed, it enables GDP nowcasting, i.e. continuously tracking how incoming high-frequency economic data affect estimates of economic growth and thereby mitigating the problem of substantial publication lags in key macroeconomic data. The estimate is generated fully automatically, without expert intervention, allowing for a rapid assessment of how new data change the picture of current economic conditions. (...)

The recent data releases were mixed: 2025 GDP growth has been revised up from 3.6% to 3.8%, most real activity indicators in August 2026 disappointed. (…) At the same time, we saw growing evidence of improving economic activity in Western Europe, boding well for Poland’s export and manufacturing. All things considered, at this stage, we see no reason to change our GDP forecast, showing 3.6% growth in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. On the other hand, the inflation outlook keeps worsening. (...) Our current baseline scenario assumes the expiry of fuel tax cuts in December and mild increases in electricity and gas prices (of around 5%), which lifts CPI to 5% y/y in January and 4.2% on average in 2027.  (…)