Economic Analysis

In today's Eyeopener:

- Today, unemployment rate and the Statistical Bulletin
- Retail sales rose by 8.7% y/y in March, significantly beating forecasts
- M3 money supply accelerated to 11.5% y/y in March
- The złoty strengthened, while the bond market continued to weaken

This is the last weekly report in the current colours. From Monday onwards, #WeAreChangingToErste – expect our economic reports in a new visual layout.
The week will be shorter than usual – on Friday, a large share of European markets will be celebrating Labour Day.
In Poland, the only statistical data release will be the flash CPI inflation data for April, scheduled for Thursday, just ahead of the May long weekend. Our estimates, which take into account, among other things, the latest information on fuel prices at petrol stations and food price trends in online grocery stores, suggest that the inflation rate remained at 3.0% y/y, unchanged from March. The Bloomberg poll median is at 2.9% y/y. (...)

We analysed Polish consumer spending patterns over Easter. An analysis based on extensive Statistics Poland (GUS) retail sales data suggests that Easter boosts total retail sales by around 1.5% m/m, with a clear increase visible in stores selling food, beverages and tobacco products as well as in other non‑specialised retailers (i.e. supermarkets).
By contrast, an analysis of detailed card transaction data, tracked day by day, indicates that increased shopping activity begins on the Monday before Easter, peaks on Maundy Thursday and Good Friday, and is around 35% higher than usual. From Holy Saturday onwards, in‑store activity drops sharply, but by the Tuesday after the holidays it already returns to normal levels. Overall, therefore, the Easter effect in retail lasts eight days. (...)

In mid‑March we published a report outlining three scenarios for the development of the economic outlook, depending on how prolonged and severe the commodity shock triggered by the war in Iran would prove to be. Three weeks later, we can conclude that the first scenario, which we had then considered the most likely, turned out to be overly optimistic, and the baseline scenario is shifting towards scenario number two: the conflict does not escalate further, but prolonged uncertainty and the damage already inflicted on infrastructure mean that commodity prices may remain at least 15–20% above their February levels for most of this year. Recent reports about an agreement on a two‑week ceasefire are interpreted by us as a clear signal that neither the US nor Iran is interested in further escalation or a prolongation of the war. (…)