MACROscope

The 60-day ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran has sent a wave of optimism across markets. Even though the peace talks are still in progress, with the final result uncertain and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remaining subdued, oil and gas prices have decreased to their lowest levels since early March, significantly reducing worries about further deterioration of the economic outlook. The return to business-as-usual will probably take some time and the disruption in global commodity supplies witnessed in 2Q has already taken its toll on 2026 inflation and GDP forecasts, but at least the risk of further revisions due to rising energy costs has declined. That should allow markets to focus on other issues, like the surprisingly hawkish rhetoric of the new Fed chair or the extreme heatwave sweeping through Europe with a potential to affect not only food prices but also economic activity (...)
 

Once again this year, we are revising our forecasts for the Polish economy towards higher inflation and slightly weaker economic growth. This reflects, firstly, the flow of new economic data, which surprised on the downside in terms of GDP growth in 1Q this year and on the upside in terms of the scale of price increases in April, including in core categories; and secondly, the prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which is pushing up the expected trajectory of energy commodity prices in the coming months. We continue to assume that de-escalation of the conflict over the coming weeks remains the baseline scenario. (...)