Weekly

The domestic calendar of events and releases for the coming week contains just one major item: the release of the preliminary CPI inflation data for October. According to our estimates, the overall price level remained unchanged m/m, bringing the annual CPI inflation rate down slightly to 3.9% y/y from 4.1% y/y in September. This was possible, among other factors, thanks to the reinstatement of the CPN programme (a temporary reduction in VAT and excise duty on fuels), which resulted in fuel prices at petrol stations falling by around 9% m/m over the course of the month. At the same time, our observations point to a fairly pronounced increase in food prices (around 0.8% m/m) and, most likely, a further rise in energy costs (0.9% m/m), including heating fuel. The median forecast for October inflation in the Bloomberg survey stands at 3.7%, with forecasts ranging from 3.4% to 3.9% y/y. (...)

The next two weeks will bring the full set of domestic data releases for September. They will arrive against a backdrop of persistently elevated risk aversion in financial markets (...) Next Wednesday, GUS will release the final September inflation figures. The flash estimate showed inflation at 4.0%, and we expect this reading to be confirmed, while providing more details on the price structure. Core inflation components will be of particular interest, as core inflation likely eased marginally to 3.2% y/y from 3.3% in August. Also on Wednesday, NBP will release the August balance of payments data (...) Abroad, the most important release will be September US inflation data (...)