Weekly

The domestic calendar of economic events for the coming week looks exceptionally sparse. The only economic release will be the balance of payments data on Friday. The market consensus expects the current account deficit in April to remain at a level similar to March, around €200m. Our forecast assumes the deficit will widen to over €1bn, mainly due to higher commodity costs boosting the value of imports. If this proves correct, it could weigh on the zloty just ahead of the next weekend. (...)

We are ending the current week not only at the lowest oil price level in over a month, but also with a significantly lower May inflation reading than we had expected. Observers of the situation in the Middle East are awaiting Donald Trump’s move, which could extend market optimism. (...)