Weekly

While fiscal issues were the main topic at the end of the summer holiday period (we recommend our report discussing the 2027 budget draft), the focus is likely to shift towards monetary policy in the coming days. Key events will include the MPC's policy meeting (decision on Wednesday, NBP Governor's press conference on Thursday), as well as meetings of the ECB (Thursday) and the FOMC (the following Wednesday). Inflation releases from abroad will also be important, as they may reveal the extent to which elevated commodity prices are feeding through into global price pressures. (...)

The end of the week is unfolding amid a flurry of information related to the draft budget act. As expected, the proposal contains no signs of fiscal consolidation. The central government budget deficit is set to reach PLN282.6bn, which is PLN11bn higher than this year's target. (...) Budget analysis will be our main focus in the coming days, but not the only one, as the economic calendar already features two very important releases on Monday. First, the full 2Q26 GDP data, and second, the preliminary August inflation reading. (...)