Weekly

The middle of the holiday season can hardly be described as a quiet period this year. The conflict in the Middle East has once again entered an escalatory phase, pushing up oil and gas prices and rekindling concerns about inflationary effects. As a result, the domestic interest rate market has shifted from pricing in rate cuts immediately after the dovish press conference of the NBP Governor at the beginning of the month to once again pricing in rate hikes. By the end of this week, forward instruments were pricing in roughly two 25 bp rate hikes over the next 12 months (...)

Most June economic data releases are scheduled for next week. On Monday, we will see enterprise sector employment and wage growth, along with industrial and construction output and PPI inflation. Wednesday will bring retail sales and M3 money supply data. The same day, GUS will also publish the results of its July business and consumer sentiment surveys. On Thursday, the GUS Statistical Bulletin will complete the set, including, among other indicators, the registered unemployment rate (...)