Economic comment

PMI for Polish manufacturing improved markedly in July, jumping to 49.0pts from 46.1pts in June, and beating our and the consensus call at 47.6pts.  Let us remind that PMI unexpectedly plunged in June from 49.4pts in May and we argued that such a fall was not justified given strong data from the real economy. Today’s numbers confirm that June’s reading was just noise, and given improving PMIs in Germany and euro zone, we see a positive outlook for Polish manufacturing. 

CPI inflation increased to 3.0% y/y in July from 2.5% y/y in June, in line with the market consensus and above our call of 2.8% y/y. The increase in headline inflation was caused by a 13.9% m/m increase in fuel prices, in line with our call, which pushed year-on-year fuel-price dynamics to 15.8% y/y from 5.3% y/y.  (...)

June retail sales significantly exceeded expectations, accelerating to 6.2% y/y from 3.0% y/y in May, driven mainly by a strong rebound in durable goods and improving food sales. Together with resilient consumer confidence and broadly improving business sentiment, the data support our view for GDP acceleration in 2Q26 and beyond. (...)