Economic comment

June retail sales significantly exceeded expectations, accelerating to 6.2% y/y from 3.0% y/y in May, driven mainly by a strong rebound in durable goods and improving food sales. Together with resilient consumer confidence and broadly improving business sentiment, the data support our view for GDP acceleration in 2Q26 and beyond. (...)

Wage growth in the enterprise sector rose to 5.9% y/y in June from 5.8% y/y in May, close to our call of 6.0% y/y and above the market consensus of 5.6% y/y. Real wage growth increased to 3.3% y/y from 2.6% y/y. (...) Employment growth in the enterprise sector remained at -0.9% y/y in June, unchanged from May and in line with expectations. (...)

June data from Polish economy turned out quite encouraging overall, mainly close to consensus expectations. The real economy performed even better than we had expected, with industry growth at 7.6% y/y and construction sector at 5.2% y/y. This leads to acceleration in 2Q relative to 1Q, just as we had ancitipated. For the MPC, these figures look more like a reason to remain in a wait-and-see mode than a support for rate cuts.