Economic comment

At today’s conference, NBP president Adam Glapiński commented on the current economic conditions, noting that while CPI remains slightly elevated, the recent inflationary shock has been less severe than initially expected. He also pointed to a somewhat weaker GDP growth in 1Q26, accompanied by a moderation in wage growth. (…)
 

The Polish Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, in line with expectations, leaving the policy rate at 3.75%. The post-meeting statement remained largely unchanged compared to May's communication. (...) We expect interest rates to remain unchanged in the coming months. Our baseline scenario assumes that CPI inflation will stay close to 3% until year-end, provided that the CPN programme remains in place and oil prices gradually decline below 90$/bbl.
 

Polish GDP growth in 1Q was shown at 3.5% y/y, revised up from 3.4% reported in the flash release. The slowdown from 4.1% y/y in 4Q25 was caused by a smaller contribution from investment (y/y growth down to 2.4% from 6.6%) and public consumption (6% y/y after 7.7% y/y in 4Q). Private consumption also showed a smaller growth rate, 3.3% y/y compared to 4.3% in 4Q, but the contribution stayed close to 2 pp. (...).